Detailed total-cost-of-service analyses were undertaken in the Study (Section 8 of the Final Report), with cost projections till 2020. In line with the estimates of prevalence of ESKD, several scenarios for treatment costs were explored. In each scenario, whole-of-service costs were estimated for the period 2009 to 2020 (based on 2009 dollars), with approximately $45 million estimated to have been already spent during 2009 and 2010.
These included the following scenarios:
A stabilisation and a growth scenario of incident cases, with a continuation of current service provision methods.Whole-of-service costs (2009 to 2020) were estimated as $240 million for continuation of current services assuming a stabilisation of prevalence (predicting 312 patients in 2020), or $302 million assuming a linear growth in prevalence (predicting 479 patients in 2020).
A stabilisation and a growth scenario of incident cases, with increased uptake of self care (10% of patients by 2015, and 15% of patients by 2020).Whole-of-service-costs of treating all existing and new cases of ESKD (from 2009-2020), with uptake of self care as outlined above, treated out to 2020 (assuming 80% Haemodialysis (HD), 20% Peritoneal Dialysis (PD)), were estimated to be between approximately $236 (stabilisation model) and $296 million (growth model)
A prevention scenario, where prevention efforts achieved a 20% reduction of ESKD from the growth model by 2020.Under such a prevention scenario, the present value of costs of treating all existing and new cases of ESKD (from 2009-2020), treated out to 2020, would be approximately $273 million.
Capital costs (including housing) and respite dialysis were costed separately to service delivery.